NIFTY options trading strategies for MARCH 2012

hi,

   Friends sorry for delays i was little busy.What really happened i have depicted in my chart an unusual and extended stay by nifty in the top zone on indicators got everyone fooling.

I incurred some damaging losses on puts.But as i said learning must go on staying on sidelines is not our ball game.Some people joined the rally late while some entered early in the rise.This is typical of nifty not letting earn money so easily.

Now what is decided is not to skip the EMAs and pivots which people dont use in a perfect trending market.

Now going ahead pivots and ema's will play cruicial role.

What to do now.

1)Daily:- Everything was going on nicely but now nifty seems to approaching the channel bottom.

              A close below 5385 and below means a small bear run till 5200.

             Now as i said feb closing is important now that baar has closed nicely above the the long term  channel so now 5200 will act as a minimum support line for daily if it goes below 5385.

              Below that long term people will again short and exit.

              RSI the reliable friend also has indication of going down.

              RSI was real culprit see in the charts extended stay fooled people whether to hold shorts or exit.

 

2)weekly:- Weekly on MACD shows signs of little trouble but weekly also has enuf buffer to keep the new trend intact.So weekly can only be in danger below 5100 now.So any fall till 5100 will not have any problems.Overall the rise trend remains.

3)Monthly:- Has to keep the guard for 3 more days.Monthly has to remain above 5200 as said to keep his hopes alive and chances of the same are high.

4)So below 5385 short only if we are helding on closing basis ofcourse u can enter puts on daily basis also but if we close above 5385 the exit puts .buy 5500 call again.

    But chances of 5200 in short term are high so buy 5300 puts as said above with stop loss given.

Now long term bull run to remain so once we reach 5200 again u can enter calls like 5200 5300 5400 but a closing below that just exit. strict stop loss.

SO follow the game plan if 5 ema is turned up then exit shorts.

THanks keep sharing my site.

  

NIFTY options trading strategies for FEB 2011

hi friends,

               I was busy since some time due to other work but as i said nothing has changed.Nifty has already climbed the Everest and its aiming for sky now.But the problem is after 900 pts move and still no correction.

Nifty current week Bar has closed above the channel resistance and it can aim much higher but caution is the key.Moving averages and MACD has slowed down at top and no clear signal of heading down still.

As i said monthly chart will be the key now any close below 5200 means back in the channel and again things can get bearish and people will call this a fake breakout.

Other case breakout is confirmed and market moves ahead but market has shown yearly like movement rite now only.So surprises lie ahead.

5381 had been classic resistance level for market and last time also after breakout of 5400 no one thot it was a breakout so people are busy.

So mean time use pivots as i said a close above 5405 and above keep 5400 call buy.But a close below day pivots at 5383 or week pivots at 5375 likes means people will exit longs and enter puts so until and unless this game of 5400 does not get resolved nothing can be said.

Any close above 5400 on monthly basis confirms a breakout and prompt for buys.

so keep on fluctuating between puts and calls as pivots move.

If there is good opportunity to short then i will write no matter what .

4700 put buyers i am also going in losses so we will treat it as bad trade and move ahead.

I have made few refinement on my study to reach a more accurate conclusions and next time onwards there will be no such bad trades.

happy trading.

bye

NIFTY options trading strategies for 06th FEB 2011

hi friends,

               CAUTION DANGER AHEAD.I am really sorry for most traders who are on short side.But now only god can help us.

What really happened.Nifty appeared to be protecting the upper resistance of falling channel.people had confidently opened shorts at even 5300 or 5350 but problem is that we need some confirmations.This month is going to be crucial month for the year itself.

My CALL sell i squared of in loss.My puts were sucked out of life by the rise.

Nifty behaviour looks like set for breakout my only worry,last time when we broke out of channel on upside at 5400 there was no reason why was it rising just technically it broke out.

Now going longs will require guts.See now this month to confirm a real breakout of atleast the channel we need closing of month above 5350+.If breakout is the key for FII of whoever is lifitng markets will need this closing else the same story back in channel.

Daily:- I am still of the fact that on daily we will see the fall as RSI has not made a new high it will slowly move down.

Day will see some fall but how much cant be said RSI is a slow indicator.

Weekly:- Looks like a breakout here also although the weekly baar is half in resistance and half above the channel.so more confirmations like closing above the channel will suffice a breakout oif channel.same watch out consistent close above 5350+ on weekly basis as a min to start consolidation or new rise.

Monthly:- SAD news is here only.Just this month confirmation is needed now close above 5350 and game over for bears.Monthly guys were tired of being pressurised and so they are seeking fresh air.Any rally that happens now cant be question because things have technically.

So now those with put buyers like me we have to accept as this could turn out to be a bad trade no point in square off if this channel breakout thing fools out then back in the channel.in that case we would exit at some decent price.

Now what i am going to do is wait ,once it reaches 5400 and close above 5400.Now one can enter with put buy 5400 with a SL of say 30 points max.Else you will have to convert the same to 5400 call buy.But a more than 1000 points rally in 2 months cant be justified so a total caution game ahead.

5400 is the game changer level.Lot things need decoding whether it is confirm break of channel to start new rise or a false and back down again or consolidation to start a new trend.

Lets wait  vix has reached danger level of 25 once it croses 25 then it will be real dangerous it will signify fall.

SO lets hope to get our money back on put buy dont worry we will surely make money ahead.Mostly at trend changes people tend to loose some money.