hi friends,
CAUTION DANGER AHEAD.I am really sorry for most traders who are on short side.But now only god can help us.
What really happened.Nifty appeared to be protecting the upper resistance of falling channel.people had confidently opened shorts at even 5300 or 5350 but problem is that we need some confirmations.This month is going to be crucial month for the year itself.
My CALL sell i squared of in loss.My puts were sucked out of life by the rise.
Nifty behaviour looks like set for breakout my only worry,last time when we broke out of channel on upside at 5400 there was no reason why was it rising just technically it broke out.
Now going longs will require guts.See now this month to confirm a real breakout of atleast the channel we need closing of month above 5350+.If breakout is the key for FII of whoever is lifitng markets will need this closing else the same story back in channel.
Daily:- I am still of the fact that on daily we will see the fall as RSI has not made a new high it will slowly move down.
Day will see some fall but how much cant be said RSI is a slow indicator.
Weekly:- Looks like a breakout here also although the weekly baar is half in resistance and half above the channel.so more confirmations like closing above the channel will suffice a breakout oif channel.same watch out consistent close above 5350+ on weekly basis as a min to start consolidation or new rise.
Monthly:- SAD news is here only.Just this month confirmation is needed now close above 5350 and game over for bears.Monthly guys were tired of being pressurised and so they are seeking fresh air.Any rally that happens now cant be question because things have technically.
So now those with put buyers like me we have to accept as this could turn out to be a bad trade no point in square off if this channel breakout thing fools out then back in the channel.in that case we would exit at some decent price.
Now what i am going to do is wait ,once it reaches 5400 and close above 5400.Now one can enter with put buy 5400 with a SL of say 30 points max.Else you will have to convert the same to 5400 call buy.But a more than 1000 points rally in 2 months cant be justified so a total caution game ahead.
5400 is the game changer level.Lot things need decoding whether it is confirm break of channel to start new rise or a false and back down again or consolidation to start a new trend.
Lets wait vix has reached danger level of 25 once it croses 25 then it will be real dangerous it will signify fall.
SO lets hope to get our money back on put buy dont worry we will surely make money ahead.Mostly at trend changes people tend to loose some money.
Yes sir still waiting for the fall so that my 5100 put can atleast come near the buying price of 89. hopefully close to 5400 fall is expected
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